Super Bull Gives You Wings (Updated)

First things first: apologies to all for the disappearing act. (For those who actually noticed, a silent note of appreciation.) Had been away for a rather long stretch of time and while I was able to follow developments back home in an irregular fashion, simply did not have the time or access to all the information to put a post up (the perils of work work). And much has happened in the media while I have been away, which I hope to get round to in a one-by-one fashion. In particular, there are some interesting developments brewing on the electronic media front.

However, I first want to take up the issue which apparently threatens the very survival of humanity itself. Yes, I am referring to the shut down of Geo's sports channel Geo Super and it's music and entertainment channel Aag. To hear Geo talk about it, it is nothing less than the rule of tyranny, the deprivation of Pakistanis of all that is good and worth living for, and the wiping out from people's lives of all information, healthy physical activity and freedom of expression. They now have a 'count-up' on Geo News, ala the 2007 'Emergency', of the exact number of days, hours, minutes and seconds that Pakistanis have been flung into darkness, and even have begun a campaign to get the citizens of Pakistan to grant them a "public license" to resume broadcast (whatever that may be). Geo Super and Aag logos with a cross across them are now regular fixtures on their other two channels (Geo News and Geo Entertainment) and a sidebar regularly updates with the latest maulvi, sportsman, politician, actor, singer or other celebrity to condemn the snatching away of the people's rights.

But before this came to pass the Jang Group (which owns Geo) also used its newspapers - the widely read Jang and the not-so-widely-read The News - to try and browbeat the authorities by running regular front-page stories about the malafide intentions of the government and the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA). On the day - April 7 - that Dawn's lead story was about a US Congressional report severely critical of Pakistan and the Express Tribune's and Pakistan Today's lead stories were about the removal from his ministership of Sindh Home Minister Zulfiqar Mirza (the PPP apparently giving in to its ally the MQM's demands), Jang and The News' main leads were about the government having shut Geo Super down. So much for unbiased handling of news priorities. This was, of course, in addition to the wall-to-wall coverage that Geo News had begun to provide on the 'event' from a day before, with the news taking pride of place as the top news headline.

Messages of condemnation have come pouring in from as far afield as Reporters Without Borders and as close to home as the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists - which bizarrely dubbed the issue one of "human rights" - even as the Jang Group has tried to paint the issue as one of governmental victimization. To make matters worse, PEMRA has until yesterday (when it finally placed ads in some papers) been unable to present a clear defence of its actions or explain the exact realities from its point of view.

 The PEMRA ad in Express Tribune and other papers on April 11

There is so much rhetorical chaff involved from both sides that it is important to separate out the facts of the case, which I will attempt to do here.

Let us first examine the claims of Geo itself. The Jang Group claims (if one goes by the news stories on its news channel and print publications) that Geo Super and Aag have been shut down because:

1) It was promoting sports and healthy entertainment in Pakistan
2) It was doing so selflessly with no thought to losses incurred
3) The government wants to hit the Jang Group financially because of its relentless criticism of the government

In addition, the Jang Group claims:

4) Geo Super was/is Pakistan's first and only sports channel
5) Aag was shut down as an act of further vengeance on the part of the government
6) Pakistani's have been deprived of sports, sports news and healthy entertainment because of these shut-downs

Let us first look at the latter claims (4-6).

With respect to 4):

The claim that Geo Super was/is Pakistan's first and only sports channel is technically patently false. It is registered in Dubai and is as Pakistani under that criteria as e.g. Ten Sports or Star Sports or Star ESPN, all of which broadcast also to Pakistan under legally obtained "landing rights" or permission to distribute. In fact, it is because Geo Super is registered as a foreign channel that it obtained local landing rights for distribution within Pakistan when it began broadcasting. The reason it is registered in Dubai could well be in order to prevent Pakistani authorities from having a look at its revenues and to avoid tax/ license fee obligations here, though there is another reason which I will just come to. Yes, it does employ more Pakistanis than the other channels and has covered Pakistani domestic sports more than the other sports channels but nothing more than that. It has no local license.

Furthermore, under PEMRA's current rules to prevent monopolies (Clause 13, PEMRA Rules 2009), no corporate entity can hold more than four channel licenses. The Jang Group already has four channel licenses - for Geo News, Geo Entertainment, Aag and Geo English (which was never launched). Unless those rules are changed, the Jang Group must give up one of their licenses to apply for one for Geo Super, which it apparently seems unwilling to do. Also under PEMRA rules, any local licensee for a satellite channel must declare its revenues and give a percentage of them to PEMRA as annual license fees. In the case of a sports channel such as Geo Super the annual fee would come to Rs. 700,000/- + 7.5% of the annual gross advertisement revenue as per audited accounts. (See Schedule A, Table-1). (As an aside, let me just also point out that from my understanding, PEMRA has no system in place to verify if the revenue claims of any channel are actually correct or not, or to challenge an audit. It simply takes the channel's word on this, which given the way most businesses operate in Pakistan and advertising receipts and expenses are juggled, almost surely means that revenues are under-reported in all cases.)

Incidentally, Geo Super had been in default of even the landing rights fees (Rs. 300,000 + 5% of gross advertising revenues as per audited accounts) for the past four years, a matter which may have been sorted out after the intervention of the courts prior to the ICC Cricket World Cup (CWC), when Geo asked the courts to stop PEMRA from taking it off air during the CWC even though its 5-year license was expiring. I will deal with this further on in this post.


With respect to 5):

According to PEMRA, Aag was ordered shut down because after the stoppage of Geo Super broadcasts (we will come to this too), the Jang Group began to show the Indian Premier League cricket fixtures on Aag, which was a violation of its licensing terms. Aag TV has a license for entertainment programming, not sports. Under the licensing rules, no channel can switch its programming genre without a fresh application for a new license. The Jang Group had also violated this provision during the CWC by showing cricket matches on Aag, for which it had already been issued show-cause notices. However, partly out of deference to the Supreme Court's orders allowing the CWC to proceed without hindrance and partly out of the fear of a public backlash, PEMRA had not taken any drastic action in the matter then. In effect, however, Aag had violated the PEMRA Ordinance of 2002.


With respect to 6):

This claim is also demonstrably false since neither has sports news been affected on news channels, nor has sporting or entertainment activity come to a halt because of a sports channel shutting down and Aag being taken off air. In addition, there are still other sports channels and entertainment and music channels being broadcast.

Now let's come to the Jang Group's claims 1)-3) about why Geo Super has shut down. First of all, no sane individual would be willing to accept claim 1), that the government's reasons for stopping Geo Super were because of its antipathy for either sports or entertainment activities. That the Jang Group would even make such a claim says more about its idea of the intelligence and gullibility of its viewers / readers than anything else.

As for claim 2), no one who has endured the infuriating barrage of advertising on Geo Super during a cricket match (a minimum of three ads between each over, more during fall of wickets) could possibly ever believe that the Jang Group's motivations for running a sports channel were selfless. Indeed, nobody could ever believe that any commercial broadcaster would be in the business to only serve viewers interests and not to make money. Let's not be absurd. Yes, Geo Super would not have made the killing it makes broadcasting cricket in other sports, but its revenues from cricket broadcasts (which form the majority of its programming in any case) easily outweigh the costs of non-cricket broadcasts. Despite the hefty price of obtaining exclusive rights for the CWC for example, Geo Super was in the game because it made money not because it lost money. Keep in mind also that the way the Jang Group (and other media houses with multiple channels and publications) marketing operates, advertisers often are lured with bundled packages of advertising across all their channels and publications, which also subsidizes programming with lesser viewership. If the Jang Group really wants to insist on its loss-making claims, perhaps it should be asked to open its Dubai-based account books for public scrutiny. Somehow I don't think this will ever come to pass.

We can thus safely dismiss the Jang Group's claims 1), 2), 4), 5) and 6) as being patently false. The only claim that may have merit is claim 3), i.e. that PEMRA's actions constitute an attempt by the government to hit the Jang Group financially for its hard line against the government. In fact, this is almost surely true. But before we come to this, one final critical point needs to be cleared up:

Has the government through PEMRA actually shut Geo Super down?

Screen shot of Geo Super channel on cable

Almost everyone would have seen this image where Geo Super used to be. Does this mean PEMRA has pulled Geo Super off air? That's what the Jang Group would have you believe. But think about something: if the channel were actually blocked, why would you be able to see this image? Remember when Geo and other news channels were pulled off air during the 2007 'Emergency'? The screens actually went blank. In fact, what this constant image indicates is that Geo Super is still broadcasting and being distributed on cable and satellite dishes. It is just that the channel itself is not running any programming.

Now let me share with you what has actually happened, which Geo will never tell you and which PEMRA is too idiotic to explain properly. Basically, in contravention of its status as a foreign channel with landing rights in Pakistan, Geo Super had been secretively uplinking from Pakistan. Under the law, Geo Super could only regularly uplink to satellite from abroad (Dubai or wherever it chose). When this uplink facility violation was discovered, PEMRA basically shut that operation down. This does not mean that Geo Super cannot broadcast its programmes by uplinking from abroad, as it was supposed to be doing in the first place. PEMRA has pointed out in its ad yesterday that Geo Super still has landing rights and is free to distribute its programmes via cable. In effect, therefore it is Geo Super that has shut itself off.

This is also why Geo Super had scrambled to apply for a "temporary uplinking license" from PEMRA on April 4, a facility that is allowed under the rules for specific events such as a major sporting competition taking place within the country. PEMRA, in perfectly legally defensible fashion, asked Geo Super to specify the event it wanted to cover. Since Geo Super could not name any, PEMRA was within its rights to refuse, which they apparently have still not technically done. The Jang Group's claims of unfair victimization, at least on the basis of this alleged refusal, are merely attempts at a smokescreen.

It is also important to recall exactly what happened during the court case that the Jang Group brought against PEMRA before the CWC since Geo has claimed on numerous occasions that PEMRA and the government are in violation of the court's orders. Basically, just before the CWC, PEMRA had reminded Geo Super that its landing rights permission for 5 years was about to expire at the end of February and that it had not, as per PEMRA Rules, reapplied for permissions six months earlier. This would have meant that Geo Super would have had to go off air within Pakistan during the CWC. It approached the courts and pleaded with them for a stay on PEMRA taking any action against it as well as to ensure that PEMRA forbade cable operators from running any channel showing the CWC that did not have the rights to show the matches in Pakistan.

This is how the official wire agency APP reported  the conclusion of the case (read in particular the bold bits):

"ISLAMABAD, Feb 1 (APP): Islamabad High Court (IHC) on Tuesday disposed of Geo Super landing rights case on the assurance of counsel of the petitioner and the respondent to resolve the issue with mutual consent within a week. A single member bench comprising Justice Tariq Anwar Kasi resumed hearing regarding the landing rights case of Geo Super.

Counsel for Geo Super Akram Sheikh apprised the court that Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) is not implementing the Supreme Court orders in letter and spirit. He contended that in case of landing rights expired on February 28 Geo Super would not be able to telecast ICC cricket World Cup matches to be played after that date. Afnan Karim Kundi, counsel for PTV apprised the court that the petitioner did not present the law and rules of landing rights in front of the Court. He said that the PEMRA ordinance was promulgated in 2002 and that nobody was being victimized.

Shahid Mehmood Khokhar, another counsel for PTV, informed the court that GEO is warying [sic] to overcome its losses through the courts.

Salman Akram Raja, Counsel for PEMRA, told the court that the authority was not going to “off air” Geo Super transmission despite that they are defaulter of PEMRA for the last four years. He said,”We are implementing the court orders and PEMRA has circulated a copy of court orders on landing rights to all cable operators in this regard.”

Later when counsel of Geo Super Tariq Hassan prayed the court for more relief, the learned Justice remarked, “If you are not satisfied then the court will decide the case on the merit.” However, the counsel for Geo said that his client was ready to sort out matters with PEMRA within one week.

Both the counsel of the petitioner and respondents prayed the court that they would solve the matter with mutual consent within one week so kindly dispose of the case.

After hearing the arguments, the court disposed of the case by passing following orders: “The counsel for PEMRA informed the court that they do not intend to off air the transmission of petitioner channel in connection with PEMRA press release of January 28 providing base for filing the petition.”

“The above undertaking that they would settle issue of annual fee payment within one week time, learned counsel placed on record a letter where by the orders of Supreme Court has been acted upon and a copy has been circulated to all cable operators, since the grievances are no more now, therefore, counsel for the petitioner wants withdrawal of the petition , the case is disposed off.”"

So basically, Geo itself had its case disposed of and there is no longer a case of any violation of the court's orders.

Given all these lies, half-truths and fabrications on the part of Geo, why do I then still say that the Jang Group is almost surely also being victimized by the government? Simply because PEMRA's hands are not clean either. Although PEMRA has responded angrily to the Jang Group's claims involving one of its former officers (who alleged to The News that he was issued verbal instructions to cause problems for Geo Super), even leaving the veracity of this particular incident aside, there is little doubt - from background and off-the-record interviews - that PEMRA did undertake a policy of using cable operators to make things difficult for Geo. This involved cable operators arbitrarily switching Geo Super's position in their channel bouquets and degrading its signals. It all culminated in the so-called strike by cable operators during the CWC, ostensibly against PEMRA's high-handedness but which actually targeted Geo Super in particular by leaving the field open only for Pakistan Television to show that day's match. This of course impacted Geo Super's advertising revenues significantly at least on that day. It may all be legally difficult to prove but the thinking behind it was the same that General Musharraf employed after his Emergency regulations failed to curb the hostility of private news channels like Geo. And this thinking is to hit them where it really hurts: in the pocket.

In addition, one has only to look at PEMRA's past record of taking to task other violations of its Rules. As the large number of illegal cable channels showing pirated films all over Pakistan with immunity - in total violation of the PEMRA Ordinance - demonstrates, there are violations, and then there are violations. Had the Jang Group not been on a warpath against the government, it is more than likely that PEMRA would have taken a lenient view of the group's violations, as it has done with many before.

Where the Jang Group's stupidity lies is that it has allowed PEMRA and the government a handy legal excuse to go after it. Already PEMRA is threatening to go to court in response to the fabrication of allegations against it and to pray for Geo Super to be permanently blacklisted for its violations. If you must take on the government politically, it usually is a good idea to keep your nose clean in other ways. But then, the Jang Group has hardly been known to pay all its taxes and has never shied away from using media clout to get what it wants, whether justified or not. Recall that the Jang Group is also alleged to be a defaulter of over 90 crores in back-taxes over many years, a case that continues to remain pending and is dredged up only when the government wants to exert pressure on the group. If only the average taxpayer had that kind of luxury.

What this brouhaha also shows is how neither the government nor the media hold the moral high ground in Pakistan. It's a sordid, sordid business in which lies and damned lies are the norm and the poor unsuspecting public are merely emotional pawns one way or the other. Once a compromise is reached - and it will be one way or another since the stakes are too high for both parties to take it over the edge - the public who think they are bringing about popular change by affixing their names to silly petitions, will be left by the wayside.


: : : UPDATES : : :

Update I (12 April 2011):

Trust politicians to jump into the fray with loud rhetoric but little in the way of information or understanding of the issues. This was the main story in The News today, which I saw only after I had posted the above piece.

We have also been made aware that PEMRA has today issued "show cause notices" to both Geo Super and Geo News. Geo Super has been issued the notice for "illegally blocking transmission without any cogent or lawful reason in violation of Section 28 of the PEMRA Act 2007" (Amended PEMRA Ordinance 2002). The following is Section 28 of the Act:

"28. Suspension of broadcast media or distribution service.- A broadcast media or distribution service operator shall not cease or suspend broadcasting except on account of force majeure or with the prior approval of the Authority."

Geo News has been issued a notice "under Section 20 for propagating false and baseless news maligning PEMRA and deceiving the public." Section 20 of the PEMRA Act 2007 deals basically with the 'Terms and Conditions of the License' and its clause (d) specifies that licensee must "comply with the rules made under this ordinance." Section 1-(d) in the Schedule-A of the PEMRA Rules states that "No programme shall be aired which..."

"(d) contains anything defamatory or knowingly false;"

Finally, our friend @mirza9 has also pointed out that the satellite licenses Geo News and Geo Entertainment are registered under the name of Independent Media Corporation (Pvt) Ltd. while the licenses for Aag and Geo English are registered under the name of Independent Newspapers Corporation (Pvt) Ltd. which may mean that both separately registered companies could yet claim a further two licenses under the law to prevent monopolies (see main post). However, while we are not aware of their directors / CEOs / ownership details, both companies are registered at the same address and share the same telephone and fax numbers.

 Screen shot of PEMRA licensee list courtesy @mirza9

We have asked PEMRA for clarification on this issue - whether two companies that ostensibly share ownership can be issued licenses as separate entities, and are waiting to hear back from them.

The WTF Headline of the Day

You know I've been missing our periodic Bizarre Newspaper Headline Contest. Is it just my feeling or have newspapers become really stingy with them? But I need not have fretted, for you can always rely on the Express Tribune to chase away those blues...

Express Tribune, 1st April 2011

That's a story from Sukkur (I have yet to figure out why Sukkur stories appear regularly on the "Karachi" pages but that's a separate matter) about how people were upset at Pakistan's loss to India in the cricket World Cup semi-finals. And the headline is:

"From India losing, our nose cutting the team has"

It's placed in quotes in the headline though no one in the story utters those words in that fashion. Yes, someone does say "India se haar ke humari naak katwa di hai" but he says it in Urdu and it is after all a fairly normal idiomatic expression.  And no I don't think it's one of ET's April Fool's jokes today. So all I want to know is, what the eff is it supposed to mean?

The Day After

I had hoped to put up this image which one of our Twitter friends (don't remember which one) had pointed us to, after a Pakistan win in yesterday's semi-final. But I think it's more appropriate than ever now. (Incidentally, I do not know who made it but if the designer is reading this and would like credit, let us know and we will credit you.)

Afridi: The Renaissance Man (Design: Komail Naqvi)

So, yes, India played far better than us on the day and deserved to win the match. But as, thankfully, most people in Pakistan have recalled, nobody, including myself, gave the Pakistan team much chance of even getting this far before the World Cup began. And for this, Shahid Afridi, the captain, and the team deserves our respect. Generally, despite the one major blip against New Zealand (for which we'll forever be grateful to Kamran Akmal), Pakistan played far beyond expectations and seemed, after a long, long, time, to be a united team.

Of course, it hurts to lose, especially to arch-rivals India, and especially after seemingly having the game within our grasp, but there is no shame. Okay, there should be shame about dropping a batsman like Tendulkar four bloody times, but you know what I mean. Afridi made good on his pre-World Cup promise of reaching at least the semis and for this we should celebrate and give the team its due. It's actually very heartening to see that most people, including the media, have taken the defeat in the spirit in which it should be taken. There should be introspection within the team (particularly about Kamran Akmal's future) but for once, hopefully, we will be able to use this a springboard for improvements for the future rather than nihilistic destruction.

I don't want to get into the details of the cricketing issues that surfaced in this match (others have already done so in fair detail) but I did have a couple of other thoughts about non-cricketing issues after the match which I would like to share.

1. Can we, like, get a list of all those astrologers, psychics, numerologists and "astropalmists" who predicted a Pakistan victory? You know, just so we know who to avoid? And at the very least, can the media stop referring to them before any big event? (Geo, to its credit, did take the lead on this, running a mocking package about them, including its own resident astrologist known as 'Mamoon', this morning.)

2. I don't wish to sound cruel (and animal-lovers please note, this is merely in jest) but as far as that unproven story about the Shiv Sena / predictions-vendor allegedly killing the parrot who predicted a Pakistan victory in Bombay, wouldn't you say they were sort of right in retiring the parrot? I mean I would never support the killing of any poor animal for such indiscretions but the parrot had obviously lost it. Moreover, the parrot in Karachi who also predicted a Pakistan victory, can you blame him/her after s/he'd heard about what supposedly happened in Bombay?

3. I hope it puts to rest all those tawdry (and frankly done one too many times) jokes about the jawaan Sheila, the badnaam Munni and the Pathan Afridi. Really. Please stop now.

4. If any credible story comes out about someone actually having bet on Tendulkar being dropped more than three times, I will personally ask Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry to take suo moto notice. Beyond that, let's please not bring in claims of match-fixing this time. One team had to lose.

5. The one definite and huge down-side to the loss is of course seeing the idiotic brigade - Ansar Abbasi et al - back in business. (Even in supposed empathy with Afridi, he must bring up Raymond Davis.) It was good while it lasted but as they say on Twitter, FML!

6. Finally, to all those 'cricket-liberals' scaring us about the potential for doom and gloom because of the fervour around the match, I hope you realize the world did not end, no nuclear missiles were launched, and amazingly there was even no bad blood on the field. You know why? Because most people do take it as a game even if they are jumping up and down, putting war-paint on their faces and mocking their sporting rivals.

Good luck to both India and Sri Lanka for the final!


: : : UPDATE : : :

Actually there was one more thing I thought about which I forgot to put down: Where is Poonam Panday?

The Jazba of Corruption?

So yeah, I think we're all pretty psyched now for the Mother Of All Battles to take place in Mohali next Wednesday (March 30). An India - Pakistan World Cup semi-final is really the true final as far as both cricketing rivals are concerned (for one it will be a final, of course, even technically speaking). There can be nothing bigger at this World Cup. Nothing. And even as India completed its thrashing of Australia in the quarter-final today, the excitement at what is to come was already easily palpable. People on Twitter and Facebook were already sharing inspirational songs, hopes and cricketing assessments, expressing fears and neuroses, trash-talking to their digital brethren across the border and hoping to reverse-jinx the other side by talking up its strengths. And there's still five days of an agonizing wait ahead.

But more on that, perhaps, later. What I wanted to share with all of you today was this television advertisement which began airing (I think) on March 23rd. A long time ago, I did a post on the semantics of another mobile phone ad (also coincindentally of the same company) and I thought it's probably a good time to deconstruct another. You almost surely have seen the ad, since it runs repeatedly between the cricket (if you are watching in Pakistan), but have you really seen it? If you haven't, I suggest you take a look, particularly from 0:20 onwards (thanks to @shahidsaeed and @KhizM for helping locate the clip):





I hope you're already thinking what I'm about to say. Which of course is: Really Mobilink??? Did you really think the best way to promote your new product was to reference spot-fixing??? I mean, look at the evidence:

1. Mazhar Majeed character sitting outside tells batsman what shot to play next (0:20-0:25)

2. Side-kick character (the go-between?) reminds batsman not to get run-out without settling monetary compensation first (0:26-0:28). "Don't get run out, for free," he says.

3. Bowler gets his instructions to bowl bouncer also from outside the ground and shares the information with the batsman (0:28-0:30)

4. Batsman acknowledges the receipt of the information (0:31-0:34)

5. Bowler gives knowing smile and signals to batsman to seal deal (0:35-0:36)

6. The entire spot-fixing network is summarized involving the players, the bookie and the go-between (0:39-0:45)

7. The non-involved players represent the wide-eyed, clueless fans who cannot believe anything like this could happen (0:45-0:47). "Such?" [Really?] they exclaim.

8. The agreed deal is executed, with a lollipop bouncer being dispatched for a six (0:47-0:48)

9. Mazhar Majeed character displays his quiet triumph in managing another fix (0:49-0:50). Notice that he is not wildly excited like the other fans rushing on to the ground, his real 'interests' lie somewhere else.


After our recent shame with Messrs Butt, Amir and Asif, did Mobilink really want something like this to seem cool? And during the effing World Cup of all times??? When, for once, we've managed to forget all this and rise above it as a team??

And in the off-off-chance that nobody in Mobilink or the advertising agency actually thought about all this in quite these terms (which I am sure would be the line of convenient defence though everyone and their nanny knows that mobile phones have been banned by the International Cricket Council (ICC) even in team's dressing rooms for precisely these reasons), wouldn't you say that there's a sorry bunch of incompetents right there?

"Such."

The Permutations of Cricketing Masochism

I had vowed at some point in Pakistan's dismal recent cricketing history not to write on cricket again. Actually I had probably vowed not to watch cricket again as well. But of course I knew even then that I was lying to myself. There is something inherently masochistic in a Pakistan cricket fan that keeps her/him coming back, even at the almost certain risk of heart-break, social ostracization from polite company and medical complications such as untenably high blood pressure. And then along comes the World Cup and Pakistan, despite all their quirks and Kamran Akmal, do scrape through to the quarter-finals.

So there you have it. What can you do?

Of course, getting through to the knock-out stage is only the first part of the battle and, as every cricket-mad enthusiast in Pakistan will affirm, the bigger question on everyone's mind is who we will end up playing in the quarterfinals. The consensus seems to be that we would not like to meet India in the quarters. Some claim this is because they would not like to see the Mother Of All cricket battles take place so early in the competition. Pakistan's skipper Shahid Afridi claims this is because he would rather NOT play the quarters in India with its fiercely partisan crowd, which would be the case if Pakistan meet India at that stage. But of course, mostly it's because Pakistan has never won against India in previous World Cups and the memory of the Bangalore quarterfinals against India in 1996 still haunts us.

Well, the simple (by which I mean complicated) fact of the matter is that, as the points table is placed at the moment, an India-Pakistan can only be definitely avoided if a certain combination of results happen. Like all fellow masochists and failed mathematicians, I have wasted quite a bit of time on working out the probable permutations. And so I thought I might as well share them with everyone.

Here is the points table as it stands tonight (March 14):
(NRR = Net Run Rate)


Group A:

New Zealand is on top with 8 points, 4 wins, NRR of +1.957 with 1 match to play against Sri Lanka
Pakistan is second with 8 points, 4 wins, NRR of +0.729 with 1 match to play against Australia
Sri Lanka is third with 7 points, 3 wins, NRR of +2.705 with 1 match to play against New Zealand
Australia is fourth with 7 points, 3 wins, NRR of +1.645 with 2 matches to play against Canada and Pakistan
Zimbabwe, Canada and Kenya are out of the quarterfinals


Group B:

India is on top with 7 points, 3 wins, NRR of +0.768 with 1 match to play against West Indies
West Indies is second with 6 points, 3 wins, NRR of +2.206 with 2 matches to play against England and India
South Africa is third with 6 points, 3 wins, NRR of +1.352 with 2 matches to play against Ireland and Bangladesh
Bangladesh is fourth with 6 points, 3 wins, NRR of -0.765 with 1 match to play against South Africa
England is fifth with 5 points, 2 wins, NRR of +0.013 with 1 match to play against West Indies
Ireland is sixth with 2 points, 1 win, NRR of -0.444 with 2 matches to play against South Africa and Netherlands
Netherland is out of the quarterfinals


Now, as far as Group A is concerned, it is almost a certainty that Australia will beat Canada, so let's take that as a given. Further permutations are:

Scenario A1: 
New Zealand beats Sri Lanka and Australia beats Pakistan.
This would mean that New Zealand ends up on 10 points, Sri Lanka remains on 7 points and Pakistan on 8 points. Australia will end up on 11 points and top the group. In this case Pakistan will be placed third in the group.

Scenario A2:
New Zealand beats Sri Lanka and Pakistan beats Australia.
This will most probably result in Pakistan coming second in the group since it is unlikely to overhaul New Zealand's better NRR.

Scenario A3:
Sri Lanka beats New Zealand and Australia beats Pakistan.
Sri Lanka will move on to 9 points, Australia on 11, New Zealand and Pakistan remain on 8 points with NZ probably having a better NRR still. Pakistan ends up in fourth position.

Scenario A4:
Sri Lanka beats New Zealand and Pakistan beats Australia.
Pakistan tops table with 10 points, followed by Sri Lanka or Australia (both on 9) and New Zealand on 8.


As far as Group B is concerned there are even more permutations. But let's assume certain things, such as South Africa almost certainly beating Ireland and Bangladesh (I know this may be a bit unfair to the Pommie-killers but we have to retain some level of realistic probability as well or it all gets much too complicated):

Scenario B1:
India beats West Indies and England beats West Indies.
In this case, South Africa is on top with 10 points, India is second with 9, England is third with 7 and West Indies is fourth with 6 (edging out Bangladesh on better NRR).

Scenario B2:
India beats West Indies and West Indies beat England.
In this case, South Africa is first with 10 points, India second with 9, West Indies third with 8 and Bangladesh fourth with 6. England is out.

Scenario B3:
West Indies beat India and England beats West Indies.
South Africa top the table with 10 points, West Indies is second with 8, India or England is third and fourth depending on NRR.

Scenario B4:
West Indies beat India and England.
West Indies top the table with 10 points and better NRR than South Africa (in second position also with 10 points), India is third with 7, Bangladesh is fourth with 6. England is out.


Now, Pakistan will end up meeting India in the quarters if any of the following combinations take place:

A1 + B1
A1 + B2
A2 + B3
A2 + B4
A4 + B3 (if India comes fourth depending on NRR)

As you can see from the above, the only scenario in which a Pakistan - India quarterfinal can be avoided from Pakistan's end at all costs is A3, i.e. if Pakistan LOSES to Australia AND Sri Lanka beats New Zealand. Obviously, Pakistan can't do much about the Sri Lanka - New Zealand match but it could play its part by losing to Australia, couldn't it?
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Now, those with a keen eye and a propensity to cut through mathematical bullcrap will surely point out that the following combinations will also ensure that India and Pakistan do not meet in the first stage of the knock-outs: A1 + B3, A1 + B4, A2 + B1, A2 + B2, A4 + B1, A4 + B2, A4 + B4. And that's not even counting possible rain washouts, ties and any upsets of the assumptions I have made regarding Canada, Bangladesh and Ireland.

I have done all this, of course, only to prove one thing: Pakistani cricket masochism leads to a loss of all sensible and rational thought.

So yeah, fuckit. Just play the game lads. And to my fellow masochists, does it really matter if Pakistan meets India rather than South Africa or West Indies or England or even Bangladesh in the knockout stages? There's no getting round the fact that we've got to beat them to move on.

A Bit Of Gillyness

I might be being really thick but I just don't understand this. The following is DawnNews' announcement of its mascot for the T20 Cricket World Cup...

Now, although it's sweet to bring attention to the endangered Blind Dolphins of the Indus, and personally I have no problems with choosing them as the mascot, I want to know the following to set my mind to rest:


1. When you explain your choice in the following words:

"Even though it is blind and many may consider this a handicap, the Indus River Dolphin capitalizes on its other senses such as sonar and echolocation to the best of its ability to survive" [Emphasis added]

...Wouldn't this be kind of implying that our cricketers would be really lucky to just survive the World Cup? Or that they would need to capitalize on something other than their cricketing ability, since we all know that can be a handicap?


2. Given that the blind dolphins are imperilled by a destruction of habitat and a lack of conservation, are we also not kind of implying that our cricket is in similar dire straits? I mean, of course it is, but is that what we really want to convey as a morale booster?


3. Why is the mascot called Gilly? I mean, really, why is he called Gilly??? Isn't that the well-known nickname of Australian wicket-keeper / batsman Adam Gilchrist (retired from international cricket) who now captains the Deccan Chargers in the Indian Premiere League? Who are we rooting for here? Or is it meant to refer to Umar Gul, the leading wicket-taker in T20s so far, who may not play in this World Cup? Or is it a reference to gilly danda, the game T20 cricket really is closest to?

I want answers and I want them now.

Stuff We Never Got Round To

Okay folks, have been trying to remember all the bits and pieces I wanted to blog about over the last couple of weeks but which I never got round to... I really should write them down immediately. In any case, here are the few I do remember...

First off, it was Dawn's fairly good exclusive interview with President Barrack Obama. (For some strange reason it is inaccessible at this time on Dawn but here's the full text of the interview.)

Yes, the interview was pretty good, dealing as it did with wide-ranging topics such as drones, the war on terror, Pakistan's economy, military and his ability to make a mean qeema and daal. But was it just me, or did anyone else find the front-page banner heading to that interview a bit strange? This was the heading:

"Beat extremists you can, says Obama"

Is he, like, our Yoda to Zardari's Luke Skywalker? I mean, he didn't actually use that phrasing in the interview so one would have to assume this is Dawn's interpretation of our intergalactic struggle.

The second thing is something that really sent my blood pressure rocketing. Who else, but Amir Liaquat in Aalim Online on June 24, celebrating (yes, you read that right: celebrating!) Ali Haider's renunciation of music and acting. I mean, is there no end to the schizophrenia of the Pakistani nation?! Or at least of Geo, which provides this madman the platform to hold forth at direct odds with Geo's supposed own policy of promoting an enlightened (i.e. non-Taliban) version of religion?

You can see the programme in three parts, here (part 1), here (part 2), and here (part 3). (Thanks to vidpk.com.)

The first part begins with ALH holding forth against the Pakistan government, people and media for not using the appellation "shaheed" for those killed in drone attacks, who have been killed by the forces of "yahood o nassara" (Jews and Christians)... watch it if you have the stomach for conspiracy theories (I found it offensive apologia in the extreme, couched in the usual verbal gymnastics of the manipulative mullah) or you can forward to around 09:00 when he turns his attention to Ali Haider. Don't miss, however, his bubbling over excitement at Ali Haider's renunciation of showbiz and the effusive call-ins and texts congratulating the singer/actor. Truly, perhaps Pakistan does deserve the Taliban.

In the beginning, Ali Haider claims it's the despondency at the current state of affairs that made him want not to sing any more. Of course, that did not satisfy the madman. He keeps prodding him to admit that he's done this because of the "nur" (enlightenment for you angrezes) filling his heart. When Ali Haider tells a caller (at 16:00 in the first part, continuing on in part 2) that he is not immediately going to start performing hamds and naats, the madman interjects that "yeh kehna chahiye ke abhi tau aap wazoo karein gay, uss ke baad mussallay pe kharray hon gay" (one should say, you will first do the ritual washing up, then stand on the prayer mat)... Eventually, he even expresses the hope (around 9:00 in part 3) that Ali's Haider's divorce (from showbiz) is permanent, not temporary.

Ali Haider may be one more confused soul following in the confused steps of Junaid Jamshed. But what do we make of Geo and it's schizophrenia? Jiyo tau aisay bhi? As for the fake-doctor-turned-madman, can no one rid us of this insufferable fellow?

The T20 final as NOT seen on Geo Super

The third thing I wanted to blog about was what a little (absolutely credible) birdie told me and relates once again to Geo's hypocrisy. While all of us were forced to watch the T20 World Cup only on Geo Super and subjected to the abominable Mr. Jeem's intrusions into the play (irritating choruses of "Jiyo tau aisay" breaking out at every bloody boundary, break-aways for commercials often before the last ball had been bowled in an over), guess where the top management of Geo watched the final? Not on Geo Super you can bet your ass!

Apparently the entire top management of the Jang Group (including owner Mir Ibrahimur Rehman (MIR, son of CEO MSR), Geo president Imran Aslam, Managing Director of Jang Group Shahrukh Hasan, Marketing Director Sarmed Ali et al, collected together at the Defence Karachi entertainment space Area 51 along with the other Geo staffers to enjoy the final between Pakistan and Sri Lanka on... South Africa's SuperSport channel, considered illegal in Pakistan and pointedly banned through Geo's efforts on cable across Pakistan during the World Cup.

No wonder, they could not fathom why Mr. Jeem was Hate Figure No. 1 across Pakistan the next day.

In Defence of Pakistani Cricket

Saeed Ajmal tries slapstick in effort to entertain

There has been much too much negativity around the Pakistani cricket team's performance after yesterday's match with England. Most of it, I think, is uncalled for.

People have criticized our fielding since we dropped at least 5 catches in the space of 20 overs, Saeed Ajmal dropping two, Ahmad Shehzad, Salman Butt and Yasir Arafat one each, and gave away, in the "shoulder-shrugging estimation" (as Andrew Miller termed it on Cricinfo) of skipper Younis Khan, about 20-25 runs through shoddy fielding. This is just looking at the bad aspect of things. Nobody's talking about the fact that we actually managed to take 3 catches (one of them not even a sitter) and restricted the English to just 185, when they could easily have crossed the 210 mark. I prefer to see the glass as half-full rather than half-empty.

Critics are also complaining about Pakistan's batting performance, claiming we never got going, or, as Waseem Akram put it in terms he understands best now, never "teed off." They point out that when we knew that we needed over 9 an over to begin with, we should have made full use of the fielding restrictions in the first 6 overs (as every side in T20 actually does), and when the required run rate shot up to over 16, gone for the big strokes rather than trying to gently nudge the ball for singles. They have also criticised the fact that whereas the English were hitting the ball at will over the boundary, our guys could hardly cover half the ground before being caught out at mid on. Personally, I think this was all a bit of miscommunication and does not warrant the kind of vicious attacks on Pakistani players we have seen. I have it on good authority that the captain had worked out a comprehensive strategy whereby the goundwork was being laid for the big assault between the 40th and 50th overs. Apparently panic set in around the 17th over when it was communicated to him that there were now only 3 overs remaining. Can happen to anyone.

There have also been calls for the head of the coach Intikhab Alam, especially since he is reputed to be earning in excess of 700,000 rupees per month without much to show in terms of success, or even a competent display on the field. Stories are circulating about him and Younis being at daggers drawn over strategy. Apparently this division arose particularly after the 17th over of Pakistan's batting when Younis began to panic, because in Inti's opinion, Pakistan should have tried to see the day out by preserving wickets. After Misbah holed out, Inti was in favour of sending in a night-watchman, a tactic Younis apparently rejected. This vilification of Inti, again, I think is, unfair and petty. Those who follow Pakistan cricket as assiduously as myself, know that all Inti ever promised when he took up the job was that we would get to see the "Pakistan team in a new light." I think he has lived up to that promise.

People bitching about our performance have also shut their eyes to the other positives that the game provided. It was lovely evening, the stands were full, they played "Dil Dil Pakistan" on the stadium speakers before the start of the Pakistan innings, a tune we thought had been consigned to the dustbin of history (and I don't agree with those who think that should have given us a clue to what kind of innings we would see), the rain didn't stop play in the middle and apparently the beer stall did roaring business despite (or perhaps because of) the Pakistanis present in the stands. Best of all, despite this being The Oval and the umpires being Billy Doctrove and an Australian, nobody walked out of the ground and refused to return.

In any case, as skipper Younis said to CricInfo, who really cares what happens in the T20 World Cup???:

"It won't be a disaster even if we exit before the Super Eights," said Younis. "It would be sad if we don't make it, but I have never attached too much importance to Twenty20 cricket, as it is fun cricket. I mean it is more for entertainment, even if it is international cricket. It is all for the crowd. Twenty20 is all about fun. Everybody expects players to come out and entertain."

I think the captain has it perfectly right. We have been highly entertained and we should be happy with that.